{"id":1133,"date":"2023-03-02T18:42:09","date_gmt":"2023-03-02T18:42:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/?p=1133"},"modified":"2023-03-02T18:42:09","modified_gmt":"2023-03-02T18:42:09","slug":"diversity-aggregation-incentives","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/diversity-aggregation-incentives\/","title":{"rendered":"Diversity, Aggregation, Incentives"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>He takes social scientist Scott Page\u2019s\u00a0diversity prediction theorem\u00a0(collective error = average individual error \u2013 prediction diversity) a step further to identify the three conditions which must be in place to know when crowds will predict well:\u00a0\u00a0<strong>diversity, aggregation and incentives:<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Each condition clicks into the equation.\u00a0 Diversity reduces the collective error.\u00a0 Aggregation assures that the market considers everyone\u2019s information.\u00a0 Incentives help reduce individual errors by encouraging people to participate only when they think they have an insight.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If you think about it, this is one of the core ways we derive value from the web.\u00a0 Consider:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The most interesting social areas of the web (especially but not exclusively horizontal networks) have diverse userbases.<\/li>\n<li>Popular platforms aggregate by design \u2013 or if they don\u2019t \u2013 external parties are building technologies on top of them to allow for easy aggregation (think\u00a0TweetMeme\u00a0for Twitter,\u00a0Technorati\u00a0for blogs,\u00a0Google News\u00a0for news, etc).<\/li>\n<li>There are multiple incentives for participation \u2013 either\u00a0personal branding, a\u00a0passion\u00a0for the subject matter or desire to build permission with an\u00a0audience.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The web brings diversity, aggregation and incentives together in a way that is instantly accessible.\u00a0 But what exactly does this allow for as a marketer, an artist a business or anyone else looking to spread their ideas?<\/p>\n<p>Simple:\u00a0 it allows you to form a basis for what will succeed tomorrow based on market data that exists today.\u00a0 I\u2019m not saying you can predict the future with 100% accuracy \u2013 that would be impossible.\u00a0 But you can get close in cases where the problem is complex and specific rules cannot solve it.<\/p>\n<p>This is a key for developing successful media, marketing or PR:\u00a0 use the larger patterns in the noise to your advantage.\u00a0 In a world where all media are marketers, and all marketers are media (there\u2019s far too much choice for it to be any other way) gaining an edge against competitors is necessary.\u00a0 Attention is finite.\u00a0 And, the crowd may be more powerful than your own intuition as a predictor of where attention will flow in the social web.<\/p>\n<p>Specific advice for leveraging networks where diversity, aggregation and incentives are present:<\/p>\n<p><strong>For those engaged with\u00a0content marketing\u00a0or creating media that will resonate:\u00a0<\/strong>research established networks to form the basis of what the most popular content will be.\u00a0 You can discover content archetypes that work and use them to your advantage.<\/p>\n<p>A quick example \u2013 by doing a search of 204,096 technology-related stories on the network Digg (a place where diversity, aggregation and incentives live) we can see that the top 5 most popular stories on the network have to do with either breaking news or product announcements\/scoops.\u00a0 Any expert in technology media could have told me that.\u00a0 But I didn\u2019t need them when I have open access to a network of technology geeks.\u00a0 The data is at our fingertips:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Defining a messaging strategy:<\/strong>\u00a0look at the messaging\/tone\/style that resonates highest and let that form the basis of your messaging.\u00a0 This needs to be just one element of your larger audience acquisition strategy.<\/p>\n<p>For an example of this, look no further than the\u00a0icanhascheezburger network.\u00a0 They found a messaging strategy that sticks and used it to create additional, similar networks.\u00a0\u00a0TechCrunch reports\u00a0on the efficacy of this:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>We all know about Cheezburger, which surpassed 1 billion page views last month. But FAIL blog went from zero to 10 million page views-per-month in just 90 days, and the recently launched\u00a0ThereIFixedIt.com\u00a0has matched that pace.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>It\u2019s important to point out that icanhazcheezburger was an almost completely\u00a0<em>unoriginal<\/em>\u00a0idea.\u00a0 They ripped it off from the (relatively) underground message board culture of previous years.\u00a0 Yet all of their sites follow similar messaging strategies, and for it they are successful:\u00a0 they\u00a0found a formula\u00a0that worked and stuck with it.\u00a0 The formula was what the crowd reacted to, and they knew it.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Creating the next hit product:\u00a0<\/strong>you can leverage networks where diversity, aggregation and incentives are present to quietly discover the next hit product.\u00a0 When we conducted the\u00a0java beta test\u00a0of more than 1,500 bloggers one of the items noticed was the most common response to the question of \u201cif you could invent a new coffee flavor, what would it be\u201d \u2013 was an extra bold, highly caffeinated blend.\u00a0 This was useful data to\u00a0create a new product\u00a0based on the feedback of a diverse audience with aggregated data and an incentive involved.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not that you can\u2019t come up with an original idea as a creative individual that will be successful:\u00a0 you can.\u00a0 But if you are able to conduct research in an area where diversity, aggregation and incentives are present you may able to discover valuable data that will be predictive of whether your idea will be successful or not.\u00a0 It could either support your decision or help you rethink it \u2013 but either way, leveraging crowds as predictors of outcome is now possible for everyone.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>He takes social scientist Scott Page\u2019s\u00a0diversity prediction theorem\u00a0(collective error = average individual error \u2013 prediction diversity) a step further to &#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more-container\"><a title=\"Diversity, Aggregation, Incentives\" class=\"read-more button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/diversity-aggregation-incentives\/#more-1133\" aria-label=\"More on Diversity, Aggregation, Incentives\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1195,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-buzz","resize-featured-image"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1133"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1133\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1134,"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1133\/revisions\/1134"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bursucretleri.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}